RogueAI

Field guide, quantum readiness

A field guide to PQC migration

Treat post-quantum migration as a loop you run, not a project you finish. Tactics, tables and a worked example a security team can put to work this quarter.

1

Frame the risk

Why 2026 changed the timeline, and how to tell whether your own data is already exposed.

How to use this guide

Run post-quantum cryptography (PQC) migration as a continuous loop of discover, decide, fix and monitor. This guide turns that idea into tactics a security team can run this quarter.

It draws on three sources. The first is Mark Carney’s SANS Emerging Threats Summit talk, A Field Guide to PQC Migration: Tactics, Techniques, and Procedures (June 2025), which describes how Santander inventories and governs its cryptography. The second is Crypto-Agility in Practice, the CyberRisk Alliance CISO roundtable in St. Paul on November 5, 2026, which supplies the 2026 threat estimates, policy deadlines and CISO playbook.

The third is RogueAI’s research on ArcQubit, a RogueAI partner platform: its six-phase program, its QuCode and QuTrust tools, and the FIPS mapping behind them. Wherever a recommendation points to a RogueAI partner, the guide says so and lists a free alternative beside it.

It’s written for CISOs, security architects and the engineers who will do the work. Part 1 frames the risk. Parts 2 and 3 are the hands-on tactics. Part 4 covers priorities, a worked example and the roadmap, and Part 5 covers people, a checklist and sources.

1.1Situation report

The quantum threat is still years away, but in 2026 both the deadlines and the attack estimates moved closer. Three signals matter.

SignalWhat changedSource
Attack costBreaking RSA-2048 fell from 20 million qubits (2019) to under a million noisy qubits (2025), then to 22,593 physical qubits in 3.14 days on Alice & Bob’s architecture (October 29, 2026). Google estimated 256-bit ECC needs about 20 times fewer qubits than thought (under 500,000).Gidney, PostQuantum
Builder timelinesCloudflare and Google moved their Q-Day estimates to possibly 2030 or earlier and set internal migration deadlines of 2029. The Cloud Security Alliance’s earliest estimate is April 14, 2030.PostQuantum, Carney talk
PolicyEO 14412 sets December 31, 2030 for PQ encryption and December 31, 2031 for PQ authentication on the most sensitive federal systems. NIST IR 8547 deprecates quantum-vulnerable public-key crypto after 2030 and disallows it after 2035.EO 14412, NIST

The risk is already live because of harvest now, decrypt later: data recorded today can be decrypted once the machines exist. Carney’s point is that the exact date matters less than the fact that the standards themselves are changing now, starting with FIPS.

Key exchange is the easier fix. OpenSSL 3.5 and later, OpenSSH 10 and the major browsers already negotiate hybrid post-quantum key exchange by default, and sites behind Cloudflare or Google already complete PQC handshakes. Signatures and PKI are harder and slower.

1.2Sizing your exposure

You’re exposed when the time your data must stay secret, plus the time it takes you to migrate, outlasts the arrival of a capable quantum computer. This is Mosca’s inequality. Try it with your own numbers.

Mosca’s inequality

Shelf life+Migration time>Threat timeline=Exposed

Carney uses data-retention rules to make this concrete. Set each data class’s retention period against a 2030 Q-Day and the urgency sorts itself.

Data classRetentionIf Q-Day is 2030
Central bank digital currency, long-lived recordsDecadesExposed now Needs PQC today
Tax and financial records (UK rule)6 years after the financial year ends; plan for 7Exposed now Data created today outlives 2030
Commercial dataAbout 4 yearsAt risk Exposed if migration takes more than a year or two

Turn this into three questions for the CISO:

  1. Which of our data must stay confidential for 7 to 10 years or more?
  2. Where does that data cross networks someone could record?
  3. What protects it today: RSA, ECC or Diffie-Hellman?
Don’t wait for a perfect inventory

Cloudflare recommends a quantum impact inventory instead: what happens if this system or its data is compromised, how likely that is, and what reduces the risk. A full cryptographic bill of materials (CBOM) can take a whole procurement cycle and be stale on arrival.

2

Run the program

A loop for the day-to-day work, inside a six-phase program your board and regulators will recognize.

2.1The PQC OODA loop

Run migration as a repeating loop, so the inventory keeps paying off after the first pass. Carney adapts the military OODA loop (observe, orient, decide, act) and adds a monitoring stage that feeds the next round of discovery.

  1. ObserveDiscover cryptography in code, traffic and supplier products.
  2. OrientMap each finding to the data it protects and the team that owns it.
  3. DecideRank by exposure and ease of change, then fund the top of the list.
  4. ActMove to hybrid or PQ algorithms and test with partners.
  5. MonitorWatch for drift and new findings, and feed them into the next pass.

Back to Observe, faster each time

Start where a critical data flow is exposed, put lower-risk flows such as development pipelines on the roadmap for later, and let monitoring tell you what changed.

2.2Six phases and four questions

The loop runs inside a larger program. ArcQubit adapts six phases from the G7 Cyber Expert Group’s PQC roadmap for the financial sector (January 2026), a public framework that carries weight with boards and regulators in any industry.

G7 phaseWhat it coversQuestion each finding must answer
1. Awareness and preparationExecutive ownership and governanceBefore you start
2. Discovery and inventoryAlgorithms, keys, certificates, third-party dependenciesWhere is it?
3. Risk assessment and planningHigh-risk systems and long-lived data firstIn what order?
4. Migration executionHybrid or PQ algorithms deployed, about 2026 to 2029Who owns it?
5. Migration testingInteroperability with partnersCan we prove it?
6. Validation and monitoringOngoing agility, new threatsCan we prove it?

The two frames cover each other’s gaps. The phases add executive sponsorship and the migration work itself; the four questions add ownership of each individual fix, which phase 1 doesn’t. Your migration finishes when your vendors finish, so “who owns it?” often means a supplier.

The G7 gives six phases for the program: prepare, discover, prioritize, migrate, test, monitor. Inside it, every finding answers four questions: where is it, in what order, who owns it, and can we prove it’s fixed?
3

Find and govern

Discover cryptography in code and on the wire, keep your standard under version control, and pick the right tools.

3.1Discovery tactics

Most organizations don’t know what cryptography they run, because they never treated it as an asset that changes. Discovery works on two fronts, code and traffic, and starts with tools you already own.

Start with existing scanners

Qualys and Tenable Nessus already flag weak ciphers and expired certificates. Aggregate those findings first, then decide what else you need.

Find cryptography in code with CodeQL

Text search fails because names vary: Java’s Triple DES has several spellings, and Python’s Fernet is AES-128 in CBC mode without either name in the call.

Santander worked with Microsoft and GitHub to teach CodeQL about cryptography, so one readable query can find, say, every non-elliptic-curve asymmetric key under 2048 bits. Released at Black Hat Europe 2023, it’s now part of GitHub Advanced Security.

Watch traffic with an eBPF sensor

Santander’s open-source cryptomon takes a SPAN or tap feed into an Ubuntu sensor. A small C module inspects packets in the kernel via eBPF, a Python orchestrator analyzes them, and results go to a database. Sensors can move between taps.

In Carney’s lab, about a quarter of traffic from some devices was already hybrid PQC.

What the traffic sensor captures

ProtocolPortsWhat to capture
TLS (web)443, 8080, 8000Key exchange, cipher suite, certificate
RDP (TLS)3389Cipher suite, handshake
FTPS990Cipher suite, handshake
SSH22Key exchange, host key, cipher

Feed both streams into a CBOM. Each discovery pass makes the next one faster: the flywheel Carney describes.

3.2Standards as code

Put your cryptographic standard in a Git repository, so every rule has an owner, a reason and a history. Santander keeps its standard in GitHub in three layers.

Cryptography

Which primitives and modes are approved, such as AES-256 versus AES-128 and accepted cipher modes.

Implementations

Approved SSH and TLS cipher suites for each platform, with normalized configuration files and code snippets stored beside the reference text.

Key management

How keys and PKI are handled. This is the layer most likely to change significantly under PQC.

The payoff is an audit trail. For any line, anyone can see who wrote it, which pull request added it, who approved it and which issue it solved. Governance, risk and compliance (GRC) teams can run git blame instead of chasing emails, and an algorithm change becomes a reviewed pull request.

The same discipline pays off beyond quantum. Cataloged, agile cryptography means certificates stop expiring unnoticed, PCI DSS and EU DORA cryptography inventories get easier, and the next broken algorithm becomes a configuration change rather than a re-architecture.

3.3Choosing tools: build, free or buy

There are three paths to discovery. Whichever you pick, start with your most important systems rather than a full inventory.

PathExampleCostMethodOutputWho does the work
BuildSantander’s CodeQL queries and cryptomon; Cloudflare’s internal CryptoLabeEngineering timeCode queries, traffic sensors, AI code reviewCBOM, migration reportsYour engineers
Free open sourcePQCA CBOMkit (Linux Foundation, from IBM)FreeRule-based scanning of Java, Python and Go sourceA CBOMYour team runs and interprets it
BuyArcQubit QuCode and QuTrust RogueAI partnerPaidScanning plus AI-assisted scoring of code, dependencies, certificates, configs and binariesRanked Quantum Exposure Report, managed migrationVendor platform plus your team

PQCA also maintains Open Quantum Safe (liboqs) and the PQ Code Package, libraries for teams building PQC support into their own software.

Inventory first, or impact first?

ArcQubit says start with an inventory, because you can’t rank what you can’t see; Cloudflare warns against making a full CBOM the starting gate. The two fit together: run a quantum impact inventory first, then point discovery tools at the systems it flags.

4

Prioritize and plan

What to fix first, what to demand from vendors, how a real exposure report becomes a plan, and the next two years.

4.1Prioritization and procurement

Fix long-lived confidential data first, then roots of trust, then critical availability systems. Map each finding to business impact so crypto fixes line up with what the business cares about.

  1. Long-lived confidential data and internet-facing traffic. It’s the easiest to harvest. Tunnel it through PQ-encrypted infrastructure even before every system is inventoried.
  2. Roots of trust, code signing and PKI. These have the longest dependency chains, so start now: find long-lived keys and root certificates, and automate certificate provisioning.
  3. Critical availability systems. Schedule them into planned refresh cycles.

Don’t run quantum as a separate program. Attach it to work that’s already funded: certificate lifecycle automation, vendor risk reviews, procurement standards and technology refresh.

Procurement is the biggest lever, because most PQC progress will come from vendors. CISA’s product categories list sorts what you can demand today:

CISA statusProduct categoriesAction
Widely availableCloud platforms, browsers and servers, messaging, full-disk encryptionBuy only products with PQC support
TransitioningRouters, firewalls, switches, HSMs, certificate authorities, identity providers, email, databasesRequire a PQC roadmap in the contract

Ask for PQC support by default, at no extra cost, with a roadmap. Define “done” carefully: a system that supports PQC but still accepts classical-only connections can be downgraded by an attacker. For key establishment, NIST recommends ML-KEM-768 by default and allows hybrid classical plus PQ implementations.

Ranking findings

Rank each finding on two things: exposure, meaning the damage if its cryptography falls, and how hard the system is to change. Data that must stay secret for 15 years carries more exposure than a session token that expires in hours.

Ease of change High exposure
Do first

Backup key wraps, internet-facing TLS and SSH key exchange. Hybrid ML-KEM is ready today.

Start now, plan long

Roots of trust, PKI and code signing. Long dependency chains on CAs and vendors.

Lower exposure
Batch with routine work

Internal TLS configs and development pipelines. Fold into normal hardening.

Fold into refresh

Legacy and critical availability systems. Replace on the planned refresh cycle.

EasierHarder

ArcQubit’s QuCode scores findings this way, and its Quantum Exposure Report names the software, algorithm, location, score and whether your team or a supplier must fix it. QuTrust also flags which exposures are driven by a regulatory deadline rather than technical severity. ArcQubit doesn’t publish how the score is weighted.

What replaces what

Only public-key cryptography needs replacing; AES stays. FIPS 203, 204 and 205 say what to use, and FIPS 140-3 says whether a product implements it correctly.

TodayReplacementStandardFederal deadline (EO 14412)
RSA, ECDH, Diffie-Hellman key exchangeML-KEM (ML-KEM-768 default)FIPS 203Dec 31, 2030
RSA, ECDSA signaturesML-DSA or SLH-DSAFIPS 204, FIPS 205Dec 31, 2031
AES-128, AES-192, AES-256No changeStill allowedNone

Shor’s algorithm breaks RSA, ECC and Diffie-Hellman outright. Grover’s algorithm only speeds up brute-force key search, and NIST expects it to give little or no practical advantage against AES. See PQC standards at a glance for all four FIPS standards side by side.

The contract ask, word for word

“FIPS 203/204 support in a FIPS 140-3 validated module, with a dated roadmap if validation is pending.” A FIPS 140-3 certificate is evidence an auditor accepts, which answers “can we prove it?”

4.2Worked example: from exposure report to migration plan

Illustrative This example follows one ArcQubit exposure report for a typical customer-facing application. The scan returned 53 findings after triage, 30 of them quantum-vulnerable. The report answers “where is it?”; schedules, owners and dates are planned separately.

What the scan found

DispositionFindingsWhat it meansNext step
Migrate24Quantum-vulnerable and in use: TLS and SSH key exchange, certificates, JWT signing, a backup encryption keyPlan the PQC migration
Investigate106 quantum-vulnerable references whose use isn’t confirmed; 4 uncertain, such as database encryption with an unstated algorithmConfirm use before spending effort
Security16Classical weaknesses: legacy TLS, 3DES suites, SHA-1 certificates, hardcoded secrets, weak randomness, AES-128Fix in normal security practice
Ready3AES-256 encryption at rest (2) and hybrid ML-KEM TLS already live at the CDN edge (1)None

Items that only looked like exposure were reviewed and removed first; “What triage changes” below explains them.

Where the quantum exposure lives

Grouping the 30 quantum-vulnerable findings by surface shows where to start. Key exchange and the backup key can move now; certificates depend on your CA and vendors.

SurfaceFindingsReplace withStandardFederal deadline
TLS key exchange (RSA, ECDHE) on public and internal endpoints12Hybrid X25519MLKEM768FIPS 203Dec 31, 2030
SSH key exchange2Hybrid mlkem768x25519-sha256, the OpenSSH 10 defaultFIPS 203Dec 31, 2030
Backup encryption key (RSA key wrap)1ML-KEM key wrapFIPS 203Dec 31, 2030
Certificates: internal CA, service certificates, code signing6ML-DSA once your CA issues itFIPS 204Dec 31, 2031
SSH host keys (RSA, ECDSA)2PQ host keys as vendors add themFIPS 204Dec 31, 2031
JWT signing (RS256)1ML-DSA when your identity provider supports itFIPS 204Dec 31, 2031
Unconfirmed code references (key-size literals, RSA in a vendored library)6Confirm use, then fix at the sourceDepends on useDepends on use

The backup key matters most. Backups hold long-lived data, so they’re the clearest harvest-now, decrypt-later target in the estate. The deadlines are EO 14412’s for the most sensitive federal systems; for everyone else, they’re the benchmark auditors and customers will use.

What triage changes

A scanner finds strings; triage decides which ones matter. These common items look like cryptographic exposure but need manual review before they count.

False positiveWhy a scanner flags itWhy it isn’t exposure
Detection rules and regex patternsA secret scanner or linter stores strings like BEGIN RSA PRIVATE KEY to search for themThe pattern is not a key
Documentation and example valuesRemediation text quotes vendors’ published example keys and tokensThe values were never valid credentials
Bundled public CA trust storesRoot certificate bundles contain old RSA, SHA-1 and MD5 rootsPublic roots are trust anchors you don’t issue; a root’s self-signature isn’t relied on
Vendored test suites and audit toolsThird-party tools list weak ciphers so they can test for themThe list describes what to detect, not what the application negotiates
Non-security randomnessPython random used for retry jitter or throwaway test namesNothing secret depends on it

Triage also reorders what’s real:

  • Escalate real secrets. Raw reports often rate all classical findings low. A committed private key and a cloud access key are the most urgent items in this example, ahead of any quantum work.
  • Escalate weak randomness that guards secrets. Python random generating session tokens is a real flaw; switch to the secrets module.
  • Set AES-128 aside. Four of the 16 Security findings are AES-128, which NIST still allows. Flag them only if your standard requires AES-256, as CNSA 2.0 does for national security systems.
  • Rank inside Migrate. Raw reports mark every Migrate finding high. Rank them by exposure and ease of change, as in the grid above, which puts the backup key first.
  • Assign real owners. Findings default to the application team. Certificates belong to whoever runs your CA, JWT signing to your identity provider, and some suites to vendors.
  • Confirm the Investigate pile. Settle the 10 unconfirmed findings before committing effort.

From findings to waves

The 53 findings sort into four waves, each with an owner and a test that proves it’s done.

WaveWhenScopeOwnerProof it’s done
0. Clean upFirst 30 daysRotate the committed private key and cloud key and remove them from history; replace random with secrets for tokens; disable TLS 1.0 and 1.1 and 3DES suites (5 findings); reissue 2 SHA-1 certificates; confirm the 10 Investigate findingsApp team and securityA re-scan shows them closed or reclassified
1. Key exchange and backups3 to 12 monthsBackup key re-wrapped with ML-KEM; 12 TLS and 2 SSH key-exchange findings move to hybrid ML-KEMApp, platform and backup teamsCaptured handshakes show hybrid ML-KEM with classical-only fallback off; backup key wrap verified
2. Signatures and PKIYear 2, before Dec 31, 20316 certificates, 2 SSH host keys and JWT signing move to ML-DSA as the CA, identity provider and vendors support itPKI owner, identity team, vendorsML-DSA certificates and tokens issued from a FIPS 140-3 validated module
OngoingEvery releaseRe-scan, triage new findings, watch for driftSecurityExposure trend falls release over release

Scan plus triage equals a migration plan

ArcQubit’s scan shows where your cryptography is; RogueAI turns that into a plan your teams can act on and an auditor can check. A typical engagement delivers:

A triaged finding list

Detection rules, test fixtures and policy noise removed; real secrets escalated.

A ranked backlog

Each finding scored on exposure and ease of change, using your data’s actual shelf life.

An owner map

The internal team for each fix, and the vendors and CAs who must move first.

A dated wave plan

Aligned with EO 14412 and NIST IR 8547, folded into refresh cycles you already fund.

Contract language

FIPS 203 and 204 support in a FIPS 140-3 validated module, with a dated roadmap.

Proof

A re-scan and handshake evidence for each closed finding, answering “can we prove it?”

The raw report answers one of the four questions. With triage, it answers all four.

4.3Roadmap for the next two years

Don’t panic, and don’t wait: a team starting from near zero can have post-quantum TLS on its external traffic within two years.

First 6 months
Own it and see it
  • Name an owner and brief the board
  • Run a quantum impact inventory
  • Aggregate existing scanner findings
  • Add PQC clauses to new contracts
  • Move your crypto standard into Git
6 to 18 months
Close the harvestable gap
  • Hybrid ML-KEM on internet-facing TLS and SSH
  • Re-wrap backup keys
  • CBOM for the top 10 crown-jewel applications
  • Disable classical-only fallback where PQC is live
18 to 24 months and beyond
Signatures and proof
  • PKI and code-signing pilot on ML-DSA
  • Move certificates and tokens as CAs and identity providers support it
  • Continuous re-scan and drift monitoring

Good 12-month milestones to commit to: post-quantum TLS on all internet-facing traffic, PQC clauses in every new contract, or a CBOM for the top 10 crown-jewel applications.

5

People and proof

The champions who get the work done, a checklist to track it, and the sources behind this guide.

5.1People and champions

Tools find the cryptography; people get it changed. Carney’s closing point is that migration succeeds only with champions in the right places, so the right tool reaches the right team at the right time.

  • Name one accountable owner for the PQC program and brief the board.
  • Recruit champions in engineering, infrastructure, GRC and procurement. Each one carries the work into budgets and refresh cycles their team already has.
  • Give GRC a stake. The Git-based standard gives them traceability they value, which makes them allies rather than gatekeepers.
  • Share the tooling. The CodeQL queries and cryptomon are open source; contributing back builds credibility and internal momentum.

Expect most teams to be early. An IBM and Cloud Security Alliance survey of 750 executives found an average readiness score of 25 out of 100.

5.2Field checklist

0 of 11 done

Your ticks are saved in this browser only. Nothing is sent anywhere.

5.3Sources and tools

Figures and dates are as of November 6, 2026. Check the linked sources for updates.

Want this run against your own estate?

Book a free 30-minute conversation with Justin Heyl, founder of RogueAI. No sales pitch: you’ll leave with a clearer picture of your quantum risk and a sensible first step. Or email info@rogueai.ai.

RogueAI also covers agentic AI security, non-human identity governance and attack-path validation, through partner platforms including ArcQubit.