Frame the risk
Why 2026 changed the timeline, and how to tell whether your own data is already exposed.
How to use this guide
Run post-quantum cryptography (PQC) migration as a continuous loop of discover, decide, fix and monitor. This guide turns that idea into tactics a security team can run this quarter.
It draws on three sources. The first is Mark Carney’s SANS Emerging Threats Summit talk, A Field Guide to PQC Migration: Tactics, Techniques, and Procedures (June 2025), which describes how Santander inventories and governs its cryptography. The second is Crypto-Agility in Practice, the CyberRisk Alliance CISO roundtable in St. Paul on November 5, 2026, which supplies the 2026 threat estimates, policy deadlines and CISO playbook.
The third is RogueAI’s research on ArcQubit, a RogueAI partner platform: its six-phase program, its QuCode and QuTrust tools, and the FIPS mapping behind them. Wherever a recommendation points to a RogueAI partner, the guide says so and lists a free alternative beside it.
It’s written for CISOs, security architects and the engineers who will do the work. Part 1 frames the risk. Parts 2 and 3 are the hands-on tactics. Part 4 covers priorities, a worked example and the roadmap, and Part 5 covers people, a checklist and sources.
1.1Situation report
The quantum threat is still years away, but in 2026 both the deadlines and the attack estimates moved closer. Three signals matter.
| Signal | What changed | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Attack cost | Breaking RSA-2048 fell from 20 million qubits (2019) to under a million noisy qubits (2025), then to 22,593 physical qubits in 3.14 days on Alice & Bob’s architecture (October 29, 2026). Google estimated 256-bit ECC needs about 20 times fewer qubits than thought (under 500,000). | Gidney, PostQuantum |
| Builder timelines | Cloudflare and Google moved their Q-Day estimates to possibly 2030 or earlier and set internal migration deadlines of 2029. The Cloud Security Alliance’s earliest estimate is April 14, 2030. | PostQuantum, Carney talk |
| Policy | EO 14412 sets December 31, 2030 for PQ encryption and December 31, 2031 for PQ authentication on the most sensitive federal systems. NIST IR 8547 deprecates quantum-vulnerable public-key crypto after 2030 and disallows it after 2035. | EO 14412, NIST |
The risk is already live because of harvest now, decrypt later: data recorded today can be decrypted once the machines exist. Carney’s point is that the exact date matters less than the fact that the standards themselves are changing now, starting with FIPS.
Key exchange is the easier fix. OpenSSL 3.5 and later, OpenSSH 10 and the major browsers already negotiate hybrid post-quantum key exchange by default, and sites behind Cloudflare or Google already complete PQC handshakes. Signatures and PKI are harder and slower.
1.2Sizing your exposure
You’re exposed when the time your data must stay secret, plus the time it takes you to migrate, outlasts the arrival of a capable quantum computer. This is Mosca’s inequality. Try it with your own numbers.
Mosca’s inequality
Shelf life+Migration time>Threat timeline=Exposed
Carney uses data-retention rules to make this concrete. Set each data class’s retention period against a 2030 Q-Day and the urgency sorts itself.
| Data class | Retention | If Q-Day is 2030 |
|---|---|---|
| Central bank digital currency, long-lived records | Decades | Exposed now Needs PQC today |
| Tax and financial records (UK rule) | 6 years after the financial year ends; plan for 7 | Exposed now Data created today outlives 2030 |
| Commercial data | About 4 years | At risk Exposed if migration takes more than a year or two |
Turn this into three questions for the CISO:
- Which of our data must stay confidential for 7 to 10 years or more?
- Where does that data cross networks someone could record?
- What protects it today: RSA, ECC or Diffie-Hellman?
Cloudflare recommends a quantum impact inventory instead: what happens if this system or its data is compromised, how likely that is, and what reduces the risk. A full cryptographic bill of materials (CBOM) can take a whole procurement cycle and be stale on arrival.
Run the program
A loop for the day-to-day work, inside a six-phase program your board and regulators will recognize.
2.1The PQC OODA loop
Run migration as a repeating loop, so the inventory keeps paying off after the first pass. Carney adapts the military OODA loop (observe, orient, decide, act) and adds a monitoring stage that feeds the next round of discovery.
- ObserveDiscover cryptography in code, traffic and supplier products.
- OrientMap each finding to the data it protects and the team that owns it.
- DecideRank by exposure and ease of change, then fund the top of the list.
- ActMove to hybrid or PQ algorithms and test with partners.
- MonitorWatch for drift and new findings, and feed them into the next pass.
Back to Observe, faster each time
Start where a critical data flow is exposed, put lower-risk flows such as development pipelines on the roadmap for later, and let monitoring tell you what changed.
2.2Six phases and four questions
The loop runs inside a larger program. ArcQubit adapts six phases from the G7 Cyber Expert Group’s PQC roadmap for the financial sector (January 2026), a public framework that carries weight with boards and regulators in any industry.
| G7 phase | What it covers | Question each finding must answer |
|---|---|---|
| 1. Awareness and preparation | Executive ownership and governance | Before you start |
| 2. Discovery and inventory | Algorithms, keys, certificates, third-party dependencies | Where is it? |
| 3. Risk assessment and planning | High-risk systems and long-lived data first | In what order? |
| 4. Migration execution | Hybrid or PQ algorithms deployed, about 2026 to 2029 | Who owns it? |
| 5. Migration testing | Interoperability with partners | Can we prove it? |
| 6. Validation and monitoring | Ongoing agility, new threats | Can we prove it? |
The two frames cover each other’s gaps. The phases add executive sponsorship and the migration work itself; the four questions add ownership of each individual fix, which phase 1 doesn’t. Your migration finishes when your vendors finish, so “who owns it?” often means a supplier.
The G7 gives six phases for the program: prepare, discover, prioritize, migrate, test, monitor. Inside it, every finding answers four questions: where is it, in what order, who owns it, and can we prove it’s fixed?
Find and govern
Discover cryptography in code and on the wire, keep your standard under version control, and pick the right tools.
3.1Discovery tactics
Most organizations don’t know what cryptography they run, because they never treated it as an asset that changes. Discovery works on two fronts, code and traffic, and starts with tools you already own.
Start with existing scanners
Qualys and Tenable Nessus already flag weak ciphers and expired certificates. Aggregate those findings first, then decide what else you need.
Find cryptography in code with CodeQL
Text search fails because names vary: Java’s Triple DES has several spellings, and Python’s Fernet is AES-128 in CBC mode without either name in the call.
Santander worked with Microsoft and GitHub to teach CodeQL about cryptography, so one readable query can find, say, every non-elliptic-curve asymmetric key under 2048 bits. Released at Black Hat Europe 2023, it’s now part of GitHub Advanced Security.
Watch traffic with an eBPF sensor
Santander’s open-source cryptomon takes a SPAN or tap feed into an Ubuntu sensor. A small C module inspects packets in the kernel via eBPF, a Python orchestrator analyzes them, and results go to a database. Sensors can move between taps.
In Carney’s lab, about a quarter of traffic from some devices was already hybrid PQC.
What the traffic sensor captures
| Protocol | Ports | What to capture |
|---|---|---|
| TLS (web) | 443, 8080, 8000 | Key exchange, cipher suite, certificate |
| RDP (TLS) | 3389 | Cipher suite, handshake |
| FTPS | 990 | Cipher suite, handshake |
| SSH | 22 | Key exchange, host key, cipher |
Feed both streams into a CBOM. Each discovery pass makes the next one faster: the flywheel Carney describes.
3.2Standards as code
Put your cryptographic standard in a Git repository, so every rule has an owner, a reason and a history. Santander keeps its standard in GitHub in three layers.
Cryptography
Which primitives and modes are approved, such as AES-256 versus AES-128 and accepted cipher modes.
Implementations
Approved SSH and TLS cipher suites for each platform, with normalized configuration files and code snippets stored beside the reference text.
Key management
How keys and PKI are handled. This is the layer most likely to change significantly under PQC.
The payoff is an audit trail. For any line, anyone can see who wrote it, which pull request added it, who approved it and which issue it solved. Governance, risk and compliance (GRC) teams can run git blame instead of chasing emails, and an algorithm change becomes a reviewed pull request.
The same discipline pays off beyond quantum. Cataloged, agile cryptography means certificates stop expiring unnoticed, PCI DSS and EU DORA cryptography inventories get easier, and the next broken algorithm becomes a configuration change rather than a re-architecture.
3.3Choosing tools: build, free or buy
There are three paths to discovery. Whichever you pick, start with your most important systems rather than a full inventory.
| Path | Example | Cost | Method | Output | Who does the work |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Build | Santander’s CodeQL queries and cryptomon; Cloudflare’s internal CryptoLabe | Engineering time | Code queries, traffic sensors, AI code review | CBOM, migration reports | Your engineers |
| Free open source | PQCA CBOMkit (Linux Foundation, from IBM) | Free | Rule-based scanning of Java, Python and Go source | A CBOM | Your team runs and interprets it |
| Buy | ArcQubit QuCode and QuTrust RogueAI partner | Paid | Scanning plus AI-assisted scoring of code, dependencies, certificates, configs and binaries | Ranked Quantum Exposure Report, managed migration | Vendor platform plus your team |
PQCA also maintains Open Quantum Safe (liboqs) and the PQ Code Package, libraries for teams building PQC support into their own software.
ArcQubit says start with an inventory, because you can’t rank what you can’t see; Cloudflare warns against making a full CBOM the starting gate. The two fit together: run a quantum impact inventory first, then point discovery tools at the systems it flags.
Prioritize and plan
What to fix first, what to demand from vendors, how a real exposure report becomes a plan, and the next two years.
4.1Prioritization and procurement
Fix long-lived confidential data first, then roots of trust, then critical availability systems. Map each finding to business impact so crypto fixes line up with what the business cares about.
- Long-lived confidential data and internet-facing traffic. It’s the easiest to harvest. Tunnel it through PQ-encrypted infrastructure even before every system is inventoried.
- Roots of trust, code signing and PKI. These have the longest dependency chains, so start now: find long-lived keys and root certificates, and automate certificate provisioning.
- Critical availability systems. Schedule them into planned refresh cycles.
Don’t run quantum as a separate program. Attach it to work that’s already funded: certificate lifecycle automation, vendor risk reviews, procurement standards and technology refresh.
Procurement is the biggest lever, because most PQC progress will come from vendors. CISA’s product categories list sorts what you can demand today:
| CISA status | Product categories | Action |
|---|---|---|
| Widely available | Cloud platforms, browsers and servers, messaging, full-disk encryption | Buy only products with PQC support |
| Transitioning | Routers, firewalls, switches, HSMs, certificate authorities, identity providers, email, databases | Require a PQC roadmap in the contract |
Ask for PQC support by default, at no extra cost, with a roadmap. Define “done” carefully: a system that supports PQC but still accepts classical-only connections can be downgraded by an attacker. For key establishment, NIST recommends ML-KEM-768 by default and allows hybrid classical plus PQ implementations.
Ranking findings
Rank each finding on two things: exposure, meaning the damage if its cryptography falls, and how hard the system is to change. Data that must stay secret for 15 years carries more exposure than a session token that expires in hours.
Backup key wraps, internet-facing TLS and SSH key exchange. Hybrid ML-KEM is ready today.
Roots of trust, PKI and code signing. Long dependency chains on CAs and vendors.
Internal TLS configs and development pipelines. Fold into normal hardening.
Legacy and critical availability systems. Replace on the planned refresh cycle.
ArcQubit’s QuCode scores findings this way, and its Quantum Exposure Report names the software, algorithm, location, score and whether your team or a supplier must fix it. QuTrust also flags which exposures are driven by a regulatory deadline rather than technical severity. ArcQubit doesn’t publish how the score is weighted.
What replaces what
Only public-key cryptography needs replacing; AES stays. FIPS 203, 204 and 205 say what to use, and FIPS 140-3 says whether a product implements it correctly.
| Today | Replacement | Standard | Federal deadline (EO 14412) |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSA, ECDH, Diffie-Hellman key exchange | ML-KEM (ML-KEM-768 default) | FIPS 203 | Dec 31, 2030 |
| RSA, ECDSA signatures | ML-DSA or SLH-DSA | FIPS 204, FIPS 205 | Dec 31, 2031 |
| AES-128, AES-192, AES-256 | No change | Still allowed | None |
Shor’s algorithm breaks RSA, ECC and Diffie-Hellman outright. Grover’s algorithm only speeds up brute-force key search, and NIST expects it to give little or no practical advantage against AES. See PQC standards at a glance for all four FIPS standards side by side.
“FIPS 203/204 support in a FIPS 140-3 validated module, with a dated roadmap if validation is pending.” A FIPS 140-3 certificate is evidence an auditor accepts, which answers “can we prove it?”
4.2Worked example: from exposure report to migration plan
Illustrative This example follows one ArcQubit exposure report for a typical customer-facing application. The scan returned 53 findings after triage, 30 of them quantum-vulnerable. The report answers “where is it?”; schedules, owners and dates are planned separately.
What the scan found
| Disposition | Findings | What it means | Next step |
|---|---|---|---|
| Migrate | 24 | Quantum-vulnerable and in use: TLS and SSH key exchange, certificates, JWT signing, a backup encryption key | Plan the PQC migration |
| Investigate | 10 | 6 quantum-vulnerable references whose use isn’t confirmed; 4 uncertain, such as database encryption with an unstated algorithm | Confirm use before spending effort |
| Security | 16 | Classical weaknesses: legacy TLS, 3DES suites, SHA-1 certificates, hardcoded secrets, weak randomness, AES-128 | Fix in normal security practice |
| Ready | 3 | AES-256 encryption at rest (2) and hybrid ML-KEM TLS already live at the CDN edge (1) | None |
Items that only looked like exposure were reviewed and removed first; “What triage changes” below explains them.
Where the quantum exposure lives
Grouping the 30 quantum-vulnerable findings by surface shows where to start. Key exchange and the backup key can move now; certificates depend on your CA and vendors.
| Surface | Findings | Replace with | Standard | Federal deadline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TLS key exchange (RSA, ECDHE) on public and internal endpoints | 12 | Hybrid X25519MLKEM768 | FIPS 203 | Dec 31, 2030 |
| SSH key exchange | 2 | Hybrid mlkem768x25519-sha256, the OpenSSH 10 default | FIPS 203 | Dec 31, 2030 |
| Backup encryption key (RSA key wrap) | 1 | ML-KEM key wrap | FIPS 203 | Dec 31, 2030 |
| Certificates: internal CA, service certificates, code signing | 6 | ML-DSA once your CA issues it | FIPS 204 | Dec 31, 2031 |
| SSH host keys (RSA, ECDSA) | 2 | PQ host keys as vendors add them | FIPS 204 | Dec 31, 2031 |
| JWT signing (RS256) | 1 | ML-DSA when your identity provider supports it | FIPS 204 | Dec 31, 2031 |
| Unconfirmed code references (key-size literals, RSA in a vendored library) | 6 | Confirm use, then fix at the source | Depends on use | Depends on use |
The backup key matters most. Backups hold long-lived data, so they’re the clearest harvest-now, decrypt-later target in the estate. The deadlines are EO 14412’s for the most sensitive federal systems; for everyone else, they’re the benchmark auditors and customers will use.
What triage changes
A scanner finds strings; triage decides which ones matter. These common items look like cryptographic exposure but need manual review before they count.
| False positive | Why a scanner flags it | Why it isn’t exposure |
|---|---|---|
| Detection rules and regex patterns | A secret scanner or linter stores strings like BEGIN RSA PRIVATE KEY to search for them | The pattern is not a key |
| Documentation and example values | Remediation text quotes vendors’ published example keys and tokens | The values were never valid credentials |
| Bundled public CA trust stores | Root certificate bundles contain old RSA, SHA-1 and MD5 roots | Public roots are trust anchors you don’t issue; a root’s self-signature isn’t relied on |
| Vendored test suites and audit tools | Third-party tools list weak ciphers so they can test for them | The list describes what to detect, not what the application negotiates |
| Non-security randomness | Python random used for retry jitter or throwaway test names | Nothing secret depends on it |
Triage also reorders what’s real:
- Escalate real secrets. Raw reports often rate all classical findings low. A committed private key and a cloud access key are the most urgent items in this example, ahead of any quantum work.
- Escalate weak randomness that guards secrets. Python
randomgenerating session tokens is a real flaw; switch to thesecretsmodule. - Set AES-128 aside. Four of the 16 Security findings are AES-128, which NIST still allows. Flag them only if your standard requires AES-256, as CNSA 2.0 does for national security systems.
- Rank inside Migrate. Raw reports mark every Migrate finding high. Rank them by exposure and ease of change, as in the grid above, which puts the backup key first.
- Assign real owners. Findings default to the application team. Certificates belong to whoever runs your CA, JWT signing to your identity provider, and some suites to vendors.
- Confirm the Investigate pile. Settle the 10 unconfirmed findings before committing effort.
From findings to waves
The 53 findings sort into four waves, each with an owner and a test that proves it’s done.
| Wave | When | Scope | Owner | Proof it’s done |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0. Clean up | First 30 days | Rotate the committed private key and cloud key and remove them from history; replace random with secrets for tokens; disable TLS 1.0 and 1.1 and 3DES suites (5 findings); reissue 2 SHA-1 certificates; confirm the 10 Investigate findings | App team and security | A re-scan shows them closed or reclassified |
| 1. Key exchange and backups | 3 to 12 months | Backup key re-wrapped with ML-KEM; 12 TLS and 2 SSH key-exchange findings move to hybrid ML-KEM | App, platform and backup teams | Captured handshakes show hybrid ML-KEM with classical-only fallback off; backup key wrap verified |
| 2. Signatures and PKI | Year 2, before Dec 31, 2031 | 6 certificates, 2 SSH host keys and JWT signing move to ML-DSA as the CA, identity provider and vendors support it | PKI owner, identity team, vendors | ML-DSA certificates and tokens issued from a FIPS 140-3 validated module |
| Ongoing | Every release | Re-scan, triage new findings, watch for drift | Security | Exposure trend falls release over release |
Scan plus triage equals a migration plan
ArcQubit’s scan shows where your cryptography is; RogueAI turns that into a plan your teams can act on and an auditor can check. A typical engagement delivers:
A triaged finding list
Detection rules, test fixtures and policy noise removed; real secrets escalated.
A ranked backlog
Each finding scored on exposure and ease of change, using your data’s actual shelf life.
An owner map
The internal team for each fix, and the vendors and CAs who must move first.
A dated wave plan
Aligned with EO 14412 and NIST IR 8547, folded into refresh cycles you already fund.
Contract language
FIPS 203 and 204 support in a FIPS 140-3 validated module, with a dated roadmap.
Proof
A re-scan and handshake evidence for each closed finding, answering “can we prove it?”
The raw report answers one of the four questions. With triage, it answers all four.
4.3Roadmap for the next two years
Don’t panic, and don’t wait: a team starting from near zero can have post-quantum TLS on its external traffic within two years.
Own it and see it
- Name an owner and brief the board
- Run a quantum impact inventory
- Aggregate existing scanner findings
- Add PQC clauses to new contracts
- Move your crypto standard into Git
Close the harvestable gap
- Hybrid ML-KEM on internet-facing TLS and SSH
- Re-wrap backup keys
- CBOM for the top 10 crown-jewel applications
- Disable classical-only fallback where PQC is live
Signatures and proof
- PKI and code-signing pilot on ML-DSA
- Move certificates and tokens as CAs and identity providers support it
- Continuous re-scan and drift monitoring
Good 12-month milestones to commit to: post-quantum TLS on all internet-facing traffic, PQC clauses in every new contract, or a CBOM for the top 10 crown-jewel applications.
People and proof
The champions who get the work done, a checklist to track it, and the sources behind this guide.
5.1People and champions
Tools find the cryptography; people get it changed. Carney’s closing point is that migration succeeds only with champions in the right places, so the right tool reaches the right team at the right time.
- Name one accountable owner for the PQC program and brief the board.
- Recruit champions in engineering, infrastructure, GRC and procurement. Each one carries the work into budgets and refresh cycles their team already has.
- Give GRC a stake. The Git-based standard gives them traceability they value, which makes them allies rather than gatekeepers.
- Share the tooling. The CodeQL queries and cryptomon are open source; contributing back builds credibility and internal momentum.
Expect most teams to be early. An IBM and Cloud Security Alliance survey of 750 executives found an average readiness score of 25 out of 100.
5.2Field checklist
Your ticks are saved in this browser only. Nothing is sent anywhere.
5.3Sources and tools
- A Field Guide to PQC MigrationSANS Emerging Threats Summit, Mark Carney. The talk this guide draws its tactics from.
- NIST IR 8547 announcementThe official transition roadmap.
- Executive Order 14412Federal deadlines for PQ encryption and authentication.
- Cloudflare on the post-quantum executive orderThe quantum impact inventory approach.
- CISA PQC product categoriesProcurement language by product category.
- Google’s 2029 migration deadline and Alice & Bob RSA-2048 estimateBuilder timelines and attack cost.
- Gidney, 2025Under a million qubits for RSA-2048.
- CSA harvest-now, decrypt-later research noteEnterprise readiness data.
- NIST NCCoE Migration to PQC and PQCA CBOM toolingDiscovery and migration practice.
Figures and dates are as of November 6, 2026. Check the linked sources for updates.
Want this run against your own estate?
Book a free 30-minute conversation with Justin Heyl, founder of RogueAI. No sales pitch: you’ll leave with a clearer picture of your quantum risk and a sensible first step. Or email info@rogueai.ai. You can also join the discussion on LinkedIn.
RogueAI also covers agentic AI security, non-human identity governance and attack-path validation, through partner platforms including ArcQubit.